Elementary-Seat
0x2e8b2f45648ec1d3e791031e705026a6ecbaed36
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$4.3K
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
1632 shares @ 91.9¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.5K
$13.72
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
1042 shares @ 48.0¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$826.56
$326.56
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2374 shares @ 21.1¢·now 23.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$566.14
$66.14
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2913 shares @ 10.3¢·now 15.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$452.91
$152.92
- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
777 shares @ 64.3¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$369.22
$-130.78
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1514 shares @ 66.0¢·now 18.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$286.96
$-713.04
- YES
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
144 shares @ 69.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$110.15
$10.15
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
455 shares @ 22.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.55
$-20.45
- YES
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
277 shares @ 36.1¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.60
$-40.39
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1667 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.17
$-495.83
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.17Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jun 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jun 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 1, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $434.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.