Colossal-Fat
0x2f684bb74337ed8abbd3e48df79aabd2b69a21ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$61.17
Total PnL
$-822.39
Realised
$-21.30
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?
27 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$27.00
$1.89
- NO
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
25 shares @ 37.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.38
$9.13
- NO
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.00
$5.60
- YES
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
17 shares @ 27.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.13
$-2.46
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.85
$-1.45
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.96
$0.12
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
1 shares @ 65.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.18
- YES
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 55.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.40
$-0.15
- YES
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
1849 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-813.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 27 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?$0.25Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill "One Battle After Another" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMEdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$1.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMArthur_0x mindshare all time high by March 31?$1.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?$3.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Eden" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMNancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?$18.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$18.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMVanta IPO in 2025?$19.00Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 01:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.