0x2f7733d410c61115b3bfe31e3345251148d64b79
0x2f7733d410c61115b3bfe31e3345251148d64b79
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$497.47
Total PnL
$-31.15
Realised
$5.36
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21?
323 shares @ 46.4¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$172.83
$22.83
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
64 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.13
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
45 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$44.41
$0.72
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
43 shares @ 90.5¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.27
$2.42
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
35 shares @ 83.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.42
$4.47
- NO
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?
31 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.48
$0.17
- NO
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
30 shares @ 95.4¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.80
$-0.48
- NO
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
26 shares @ 87.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.78
$3.16
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
20 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$19.71
$-0.09
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
17 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.59
$-0.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.40Jun 20, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$41.24Jun 20, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$40.08Jun 20, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.76Jun 20, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.00Jun 20, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Jun 20, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$41.18Jun 20, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade another country in 2026?$2.67Jun 20, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20?$40.29Jun 20, 04:38 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$148.34Jun 20, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$42.04Jun 20, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20?$224.55Jun 20, 03:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19?$0.00Jun 20, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?$1.28Jun 20, 02:36 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$47.32Jun 20, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$40.43Jun 20, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$71.00Jun 20, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$41.22Jun 20, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?$27.00Jun 20, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21?$154.02Jun 20, 01:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $43.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 09:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 10:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.