Potable-Rug
0x3063fb5264636bde17f228016d8b6272d3e38f4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$18.52
Total PnL
$-13.88
Realised
$-1.54
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
4 shares @ 81.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.56
$0.30
- NO
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 86.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.46
$0.25
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.24
$0.11
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 14?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.96
$0.33
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
2 shares @ 80.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.89
$0.20
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.86
$0.03
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.84
$0.12
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 89.4¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.70
$-0.09
- YES
Harvard international students ban ended before August?
5 shares @ 77.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.65
- NO
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?
2 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 14?$1.65Aug 14, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$1.80Aug 7, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$1.71Aug 7, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.80Jul 31, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) finish week of July 20 above $580?$1.99Jul 31, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.04Jul 31, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) finish week of July 20 above $580?$1.97Jul 24, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$1.48Jul 17, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$1.69Jul 10, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMDAX (DAX) Up or Down on July 2?$1.50Jul 10, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.94Jul 10, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYDAX (DAX) Up or Down on July 2?$1.49Jul 2, 14:30 UTC
- REDEEMTesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?$1.92Jul 2, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.61Jun 25, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$2.04Jun 25, 15:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.04Jun 18, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$1.63Jun 17, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?$1.66Jun 17, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?$2.52Jun 17, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?$1.87Jun 11, 10:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $58.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 16:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 11:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.