Cheery-Science
0x3089e1a6e3e9122c328aebe47b86ff5e13b292f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$24.6K
Total PnL
$20.0K
Realised
$16.7K
Win rate
73%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- YES
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?
3769 shares @ 35.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.7K
$2.4K
- NO
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
2996 shares @ 58.5¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.7K
$943.40
- NO
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
2322 shares @ 84.9¢·now 89.8¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$2.1K
$112.94
- NO
Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
1702 shares @ 75.0¢·now 98.1¢·exp Feb 14, 2027$1.7K
$393.42
- NO
Will "Mutiny" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
1456 shares @ 73.4¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$1.5K
$382.28
- NO
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?
1470 shares @ 94.4¢·now 93.7¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$1.4K
$-10.62
- NO
Will Mallory Aurichio win Big Brother season 28?
1038 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.6¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$982.31
$16.61
- NO
Will Chuk Anyanwu win Big Brother season 28?
960 shares @ 92.1¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$949.69
$65.42
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1495 shares @ 33.0¢·now 61.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$917.04
$423.77
- NO
Will “RuPaul’s Drag Race” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?
821 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$789.16
$31.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?$85.21Aug 23, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$35.44Aug 23, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$89.06Aug 23, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$6.84Aug 23, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$23.20Aug 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Veronika Goroshkova advance to the Semifinals or Finals of AGT Season 21 during the Quarterfinals?$8.88Aug 23, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$10.00Aug 23, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$10.00Aug 23, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?$6.72Aug 23, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Veronika Goroshkova advance to the Semifinals or Finals of AGT Season 21 during the Quarterfinals?$5.52Aug 23, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Veronika Goroshkova advance to the Semifinals or Finals of AGT Season 21 during the Quarterfinals?$3.31Aug 23, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$22.15Aug 23, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$76.80Aug 23, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia Immunology Research Bond Proposition$20.80Aug 23, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$7.38Aug 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$39.08Aug 23, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$197.61Aug 23, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$14.00Aug 23, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LaTrice Verrett be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 7)?$62.91Aug 23, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?$4.93Aug 23, 00:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $51.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 22, 04:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 18:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.