Warmhearted-Yawl
0x30cecdc7c07af3fcdd82918a8e9cb31c22b38afc
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$8.00
Total PnL
$-59.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?
8 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$8.00
$0.88
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
7780 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-7.78
- YES
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?
1575 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?
555 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
100 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.90
- YES
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?
41 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
41 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.04
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 62.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?$5.00May 2, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio?$5.98May 2, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?$0.00Apr 19, 18:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$0.00Apr 19, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?$0.19Apr 19, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$3.45Apr 19, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio?$5.40Apr 19, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?$7.12Apr 19, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$2.80Apr 19, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?$1.97Apr 16, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?$2.20Apr 16, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?$1.26Apr 16, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?$1.12Apr 16, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?$2.78Apr 16, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$9.20Apr 16, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$7.40Apr 15, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?$20.20Apr 15, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?$6.11Apr 14, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?$4.00Apr 14, 11:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 09:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 02:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.