Novel-Tunnel
0x317b949e442b8ccd9c4255f54a9db59bceb98e90
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$480.55
Total PnL
$-238.41
Realised
$-10.29
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?
400 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$400.00
$196.00
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
90 shares @ 59.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$80.55
$27.45
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
355 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-188.15
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
230 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-66.70
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
185 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-73.95
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
170 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-61.10
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
170 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
150 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
124 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-43.25
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
120 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-5.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?$211.00Jul 3, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$12.55Jul 3, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$53.10Jul 3, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$63.84Jul 3, 10:51 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$350.00Jul 3, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$269.50May 8, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$275.09May 8, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$129.29Apr 9, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$66.70Apr 9, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$195.99Apr 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$113.67Mar 3, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$43.25Mar 3, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?$168.92Mar 3, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?$119.93Feb 2, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$73.95Jan 7, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMLighter Airdrop on December 22?$73.95Jan 7, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter Airdrop on December 22?$71.58Dec 15, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$71.58Dec 15, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$71.15Nov 19, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$188.15Nov 15, 14:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $89.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 11:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 11:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.