Popular-Middleman
0x31c4578b25af36f34c8aa4cc85f0794bfbea622f
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-23.35
Realised
$61.70
Win rate
54%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
125 shares @ 29.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$38.01
$1.41
- NO
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
46 shares @ 52.1¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$33.39
$9.24
- NO
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?
59 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$29.11
$0.29
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
33 shares @ 84.4¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$26.51
$-0.94
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
32 shares @ 75.8¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.24
$0.94
- YES
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
35 shares @ 71.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$24.54
$-0.53
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
58 shares @ 43.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$24.04
$-1.25
- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
26 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.46
$-0.18
- YES
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
65 shares @ 14.4¢·now 32.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$21.00
$11.54
- CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
44 shares @ 51.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$19.52
$-2.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$8.65Jun 22, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 2026?$2.40Jun 22, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?$1.10Jun 22, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?$1.10Jun 22, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?$0.46Jun 22, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?$0.63Jun 22, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.52Jun 22, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5$1.09Jun 22, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$4.85Jun 22, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers$1.10Jun 22, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers$1.10Jun 22, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$0.03Jun 22, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren$1.09Jun 22, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 22 2026?$1.52Jun 22, 12:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
52 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 10:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 13:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.