Aggravating-Nicety
0x325fe0ebff00b61cf658bb580b698f84986f8e0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$5.9K
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$83.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
4358 shares @ 64.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$-457.59
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
2062 shares @ 57.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$609.02
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1570 shares @ 44.5¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$949.74
$251.19
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
899 shares @ 68.6¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$579.66
$-37.01
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
212 shares @ 84.6¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$208.15
$29.00
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
2480 shares @ 68.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?
1076 shares @ 41.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-443.19
- YES
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?
1020 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-754.80
- YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?
175 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-84.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$388.38Jul 17, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$194.18Jul 17, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$194.60Jul 17, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$236.04Jul 17, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$235.79Jul 17, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.8KJul 10, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$44.65Jul 1, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.7KJun 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$582.07Jun 28, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$21.54Jun 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$21.54Jun 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$11.49Jun 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$637.70Jun 28, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$929.22Jun 22, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$928.88Jun 22, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.0KJun 21, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$85.51Jun 20, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$143.32Jun 20, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$323.88Jun 20, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$172.76Jun 20, 17:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $393.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 17:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 10:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.