Wallet digest

active

Activity score

59/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

129

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$974.20

Win rate

72%

92 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 129

YES
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?
6356 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-693.59
NO
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?
5000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?
2232 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.7K
YES
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?
500 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
50 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-22.26
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
50 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-12.64
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
50 shares @ 59.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-29.61
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
50 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-19.39
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
50 shares @ 56.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-27.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
50 shares @ 45.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-22.74

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$8.9KJul 8, 23:34 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.6KJul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.3KJul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.3KJul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.5KJul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$546.16Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.1KJul 2, 00:35 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$635.57Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$141.88Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$738.65Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.4KJun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.3KJun 27, 00:35 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$313.47Jun 27, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$220.00Jun 26, 10:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$1.49Jun 26, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$18.50Jun 26, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$3.83Jun 26, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$3.83Jun 26, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$18.50Jun 26, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$37.01Jun 26, 10:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

85/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

72% win rate over 92 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

92 closed markets, 72% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry81 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $14.26
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 26, 10:43 UTC
Last active: Jul 8, 23:34 UTC
Win rate sample: 92 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:16:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data