MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 29, 2026

Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$436.58

Liquidity

$8.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:32
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 78h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 78.5h

    LOW
  • 17:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 78h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventHow many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Category · Macro

Market Description

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · high
federalreserve.gov
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket