Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?
Probability
85¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+12.5pp
24h Vol
$1.8K
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 98.3h
- 21:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 98h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 85¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 89¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 74¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 77¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 71¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal Open Market CommitteeOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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