Green-Birdwatcher
0x3458ae6606828ed4d9666573e1585d9419efb5a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$14.3K
Total PnL
$-26.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2794 shares @ 89.5¢·now 61.1¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$1.7K
$-794.21
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1234 shares @ 81.0¢·now 84.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.0K
$47.98
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
706 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$691.06
$91.06
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
580 shares @ 86.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$577.01
$77.01
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
538 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$497.04
$-2.96
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
536 shares @ 93.3¢·now 91.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$489.62
$-10.38
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
536 shares @ 93.3¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$466.24
$-33.76
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
448 shares @ 71.5¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$346.93
$26.93
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
367 shares @ 81.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$306.48
$6.48
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
673 shares @ 44.6¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$285.97
$-14.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$434.78Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?$108.70Jun 12, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?$101.14Jun 12, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$202.40Jun 12, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$201.14Jun 12, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$203.24Jun 12, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$202.76Jun 12, 16:45 UTC
- REDEEMMinnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers$1.1KJun 12, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by June 30?$10.26Jun 12, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$285.71Jun 11, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$201.80Jun 11, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$100.00Jun 11, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$501.80Jun 11, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMinnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers$1.0KJun 11, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$105.26Jun 11, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$243.15Jun 11, 01:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $264.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 14:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.