Costly-Thunderstorm
0x3473a772f46605d89da17b52b617801a59018c3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$203.67
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
143 shares @ 3.5¢·now 88.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$126.36
$121.36
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
319 shares @ 15.7¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.42
$-0.58
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
372 shares @ 26.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.89
$-72.11
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
23983 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-54.97
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
3064 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- YES
Trump out as President by March 31?
1750 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?
1181 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31?
1000 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
900 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-360.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
578 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?$360.00Mar 22, 10:46 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$357.14Mar 6, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?$65.00Jan 6, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$21.74Jan 6, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$50.00Jan 6, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 9?$20.00Jan 6, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$50.00Jan 4, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$100.00Jan 4, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?$50.00Jan 3, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$50.00Jan 3, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?$200.00Jan 3, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$50.00Jan 3, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$49.00Jan 3, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$51.00Jan 3, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$50.00Jan 3, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?$50.00Jan 3, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31?$50.00Jan 3, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?$50.00Jan 3, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?$555.56Jan 3, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$5.00Jan 2, 23:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $61.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 2, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 10:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.