Worst-Heavy
0x37d634e44d18a40b3c30b0643a8714139933fd31
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$24.61
Total PnL
$-127.45
Realised
$-3.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.77
$-4.23
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
5 shares @ 85.2¢·now 73.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.72
$-0.57
- NO
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
4 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$3.52
$0.52
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
4 shares @ 89.4¢·now 89.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.26
$-0.01
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 86.0¢·now 74.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.22
$-0.52
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 64.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.08
$-6.32
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.02
$-1.54
- NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
50 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-28.50
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
24 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.41Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$3.37Jul 19, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$4.68Jul 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?$11.54Jul 17, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$17.71Jul 16, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$3.41Jul 16, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 15?$4.97Jul 16, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?$3.96Jul 16, 04:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMKylian Mbappé: 2+ goals$4.54Jul 14, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?$3.43Jul 14, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$3.56Jul 13, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$3.27Jul 13, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 2+ goals$4.06Jul 13, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?$3.11Jul 13, 09:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?$4.74Jul 12, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?$4.91Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.39Jul 12, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?$3.88Jul 12, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 11?$3.62Jul 11, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $5.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 08:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.