Sorrowful-Inversion
0x380c14de6eed4ba10f85c2f7cc87012ef1f1341b
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$5.23
Total PnL
$-8.60
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- GUIDO JUSTO
Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.12
$0.08
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 11?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Collect be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will Cursed Daughters (Oyinkan Braithwaite) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.75
- YES
Will LaNorris Sellers win the Heisman Trophy?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-0.72
- NO
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$5.99Jun 30, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$7.00Jun 30, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30?$5.97Jun 30, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 30, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30?$7.00Jun 30, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 11?$9.75Jun 30, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima$1.04Jun 30, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 11?$10.80Jun 30, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$1.01Jun 25, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$1.10Jun 25, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$8.96May 31, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$10.00May 31, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$1.00May 31, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Comey leave the country by May 15?$1.02May 23, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xiaomi have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10, 2026?$1.08May 12, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 27–May 3, 2026?$1.01May 7, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on May 4?$1.01May 7, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?$1.13May 7, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 April 27-May 3?$6.06May 7, 08:21 UTC
- SPLITWill Solana reach $160 April 27-May 3?$6.06May 3, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $6.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 03:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 09:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.