Large-Epic
0x38bbb5856b4db09f648e995f5b94a02deb01e3e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$147.54
Total PnL
$-130.08
Realised
$12.39
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.13
$0.13
- YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
30 shares @ 80.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$21.45
$-2.55
- NO
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.72
$3.72
- NO
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
7 shares @ 26.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.94
$3.06
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5 shares @ 94.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.92
$0.18
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NY-12 House seat?
5 shares @ 94.9¢·now 97.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.88
$0.14
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?
5 shares @ 94.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$4.88
$0.13
- NO
US military draft authorized in 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.78
$0.03
- NO
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$3.99
$2.03
- NO
Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.63
$1.73
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$2.85Aug 8, 23:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?$1.00Aug 7, 03:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs$2.95Aug 6, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$2.00Aug 6, 15:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$1.13Aug 5, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?$1.80Aug 5, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$1.06Aug 5, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?$1.15Aug 5, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?$1.00Aug 5, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$5.00Aug 5, 03:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$5.00Aug 5, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$0.97Aug 5, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?$2.02Aug 5, 00:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$3.88Aug 5, 00:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $6.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 11:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.