Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$642.21
Liquidity
$15.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2421.1h
- 02:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2421h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 20¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 20¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 20¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 21¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).