Hefty-Lieu
0x390aa42d7013d54c0782a1292188a28bc8e569a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
1927 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-737.79
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
1286 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
960 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-39.70
- YES
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
682 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-124.31
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
450 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
400 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-173.60
- YES
Will Trump announce military actions against Iran by Friday?
328 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
278 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Bolivia win on 2026-03-31?
275 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-98.86
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
225 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?$225.64Jul 3, 05:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?$111.69Jul 2, 22:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $28.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.