Ultimate-Brushfire
0x392ae2a1fbc20cc1be679958f4a8809c8b49262d
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-607.55
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
2600 shares @ 71.3¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.4K
$554.21
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
2323 shares @ 66.6¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.5K
$-1.47
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1891 shares @ 44.8¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$860.37
$12.38
- YES
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
1256 shares @ 59.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$703.26
$-37.46
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
637 shares @ 79.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$576.40
$73.41
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
548 shares @ 77.2¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$435.39
$12.27
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 75.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$325.96
$25.96
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
267 shares @ 74.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$252.69
$53.32
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
200 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$131.99
$2.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
200 shares @ 45.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$112.98
$22.98
Recent activity
- REWARD$0.18Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$200.00Jun 25, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$79.61Jun 25, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$0.61Jun 25, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$37.70Jun 25, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$9.75Jun 25, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$2.32Jun 25, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$12.00Jun 25, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$286.92Jun 25, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$236.00Jun 25, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$4.72Jun 25, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$500.00Jun 25, 01:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.48Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.22Jun 23, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$390.23Jun 23, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$74.60Jun 23, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$100.00Jun 23, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$667.20Jun 23, 04:19 UTC
- REWARD$1.28Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$390.00Jun 22, 21:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $166.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.