Precious-Creche
0x398dafc40ced1757f33a263d809f18666ba5c7c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-424.7K
Realised
$-5.2K
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2446 shares @ 50.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.1K
$-110.06
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3045 shares @ 60.1¢·now 12.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$379.09
$-1.5K
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 93.0¢·now 83.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$166.70
$-19.30
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
2452 shares @ 16.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$159.36
$-232.91
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3990 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$53.87
$-45.89
- YES
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1250 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.88
$-35.58
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
262981 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-58.4K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
226624 shares @ 39.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-89.0K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
137439 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-40.0K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
114025 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-13.6K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.12Aug 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$270.47Jul 19, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$100.00Jul 19, 17:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $270.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.