Ambitious-Plant
0x39fc488c1ea11145bdabff2d8b24e4f958985698
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-48.46
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.70
$18.70
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
170 shares @ 87.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$170.00
$22.00
- NO
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
150 shares @ 87.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$149.99
$19.00
- NO
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
103 shares @ 79.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$103.33
$21.00
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$100.00
$10.00
- YES
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$24.00
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$100.00
$14.00
- NO
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$10.00
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$13.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
100 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$99.99
$6.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 12:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.