Alarmed-Statute
0x3a3b86bb56d3dda29636fa48a18c9be0666a1aa2
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$8.56
Total PnL
$-428.70
Realised
$2.76
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
52 shares @ 9.7¢·now 11.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.01
$1.01
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
15 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.16
$-0.59
- YES
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
11 shares @ 17.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.85
$-1.19
- YES
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
24 shares @ 20.9¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.33
$-4.67
- YES
Netanyahu out by June 30?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.21
$-1.79
- YES
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
4486 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.01
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
1557 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.48
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
1167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.14Jun 7, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.03May 30, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$5.17May 30, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.95May 30, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.47May 30, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$3.35May 30, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.78May 21, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.06May 21, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.05May 21, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.07May 21, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$0.96May 20, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.04May 20, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.30May 20, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.05May 20, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$9.99Apr 23, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.50Apr 23, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?$1.50Apr 23, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?$1.50Apr 23, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$10.00Apr 23, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$1.50Apr 23, 16:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 16:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 16:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.