Puzzling-Haversack
0x3a43a18ee531358ed5db671cf1223634313b67dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-147.60
Realised
$301.34
Win rate
69%
75 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
37 shares @ 76.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.10
$6.87
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
45 shares @ 69.4¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.08
$1.82
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
43 shares @ 59.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$29.81
$4.50
- NO
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?
34 shares @ 74.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.95
$3.60
- NO
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?
30 shares @ 94.2¢·now 90.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.06
$-1.19
- YES
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
45 shares @ 44.1¢·now 59.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$26.55
$6.68
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 53.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$26.32
$2.47
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?
26 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.7¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$25.42
$-0.03
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
45 shares @ 68.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$24.98
$-5.63
- YES
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
33 shares @ 62.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.76
$3.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$20.00Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMNBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?$16.67Jul 27, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMFDA approves Otsuka's Centanafadine?$15.00Jul 25, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$19.52Jul 24, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLFloyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2$17.27Jul 23, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?$12.36Jul 21, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?$35.00Jul 20, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?$25.00Jul 20, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?$16.25Jul 20, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$6.34Jul 19, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 9?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 15?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 10?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by July 31?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 16?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 17?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 17, 21:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
77/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 75 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
75 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $17.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 21:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 75 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.