Scarce-Legislation
0x3a872f91d004f8b2925200f220e5f8ca87ff770e
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$18.80
Total PnL
$-345.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
81 shares @ 18.6¢·now 22.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$17.78
$2.78
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
161 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
144 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
107 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 24?
99 shares @ 49.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-48.99
- YES
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
93 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?
91 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
86 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?$10.38Jun 19, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$3.89Jun 19, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$5.33Jun 19, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?$10.32Jun 19, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.00Jun 19, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jun 18, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.61Jun 18, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$29.41Jun 15, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMStuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik$14.29Jun 13, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik$10.09Jun 10, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June?$10.32Jun 9, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$10.24Jun 9, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians$41.67Jun 9, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians$10.23Jun 9, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMBirmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana$21.74Jun 7, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBirmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana$10.16Jun 4, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?$10.62Jun 2, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$10.38Jun 2, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?$33.33May 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$10.00May 26, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 19:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.