Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.5pp
24h Vol
$662.88
Liquidity
$2.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 238.5h
- 01:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 239h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 20¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 16¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 13¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 14¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meetAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).