0x3b7004641f9031d484c64fc23b9e1df970e467e7
0x3b7004641f9031d484c64fc23b9e1df970e467e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$1.5K
Realised
$-10.90
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
815 shares @ 12.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$814.83
$711.86
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
526 shares @ 64.5¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$396.82
$57.67
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
321 shares @ 28.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$320.83
$229.68
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
314 shares @ 58.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$313.55
$129.33
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
295 shares @ 14.4¢·now 82.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$242.40
$199.85
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
163 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$162.65
$22.80
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
151 shares @ 79.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.95
$22.18
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
152 shares @ 68.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.80
$33.11
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
160 shares @ 45.5¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$126.21
$53.35
- YES
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
123 shares @ 84.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$123.06
$19.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.