Beautiful-Methane-Sunset
0x3be56dec80a7ec937580b5a4daec22fb5e31f7fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$887.64
Total PnL
$-35.71
Realised
$-10.41
Win rate
28%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
638 shares @ 50.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$501.42
$182.25
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
638 shares @ 50.0¢·now 21.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$136.92
$-182.25
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
63 shares @ 83.8¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.50
$-0.21
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
15 shares @ 75.3¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$10.42
$-0.88
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
16 shares @ 63.7¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.45
$-1.42
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.66
$-0.03
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
10 shares @ 69.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.45
$-0.45
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.40
$-0.03
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.37
$0.05
- YES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
10 shares @ 79.5¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$5.95
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$0.75Aug 9, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?$0.04Aug 9, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$0.07Aug 9, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?$0.01Aug 9, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 140m and 150m?$4.67Aug 9, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$4.62Aug 9, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$1.20Aug 9, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$0.45Aug 9, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$0.75Aug 9, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$9.57Aug 9, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a pillager?$4.28Aug 9, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a piglin?$2.23Aug 9, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai or Speed die to a ghast?$1.90Aug 9, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a ghast?$0.53Aug 9, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 9, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$0.25Aug 9, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a ghast?$1.97Aug 8, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a zombified piglin?$3.55Aug 8, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$2.01Aug 8, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?$1.65Aug 8, 23:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 21:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 03:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.