0x3c14dc5d3d0109dbc27dafe49e7060473224ffa5
0x3c14dc5d3d0109dbc27dafe49e7060473224ffa5
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$525.70
Total PnL
$-106.26
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
118 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$110.76
$1.78
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
109 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$93.94
$3.80
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
73 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$68.28
$1.10
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
51 shares @ 93.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$51.20
$3.28
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
53 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.14
$1.27
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
54 shares @ 92.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$48.72
$-0.92
- NO
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
52 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$45.34
$-0.73
- YES
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
215 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.89
$-3.23
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
20 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$17.70
$0.10
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
98 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$12.74
$0.98
Recent activity
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 1, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$0.00Jun 1, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$47.50May 21, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.88May 21, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00May 21, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.88May 21, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$4.75May 21, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMSet 1 Winner: Rodionov vs Lajovic$29.11May 19, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$11.76May 19, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Rodionov vs Lajovic$10.19May 19, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$30.98May 19, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$30.12May 19, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 18?$11.14May 19, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 19?$11.42May 19, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?$5.41Apr 2, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?$7.72Mar 29, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?$6.08Mar 29, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?$1.98Mar 24, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 19?$10.85Mar 18, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 18?$8.33Mar 18, 18:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $6.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 22:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 14:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.