Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Probability
73¢
1h
+1.1pp
24h
-2.8pp
24h Vol
$7.36
Liquidity
$766.20
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 73¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 43.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 12:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-0.8pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.7pp at 2d ago (to 65¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -27.7pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -24.8pp → 67¢
- 3d ago · -26.0pp → 66¢
- 3d ago · -27.1pp → 65¢
- 3d ago · -23.7pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -23.7pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -27.4pp → 65¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (43.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.