Hefty-Almond
0x3da617e9f3778d86ad172d22dbc93409c2969ac4
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$60.41
Win rate
39%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1089 shares @ 75.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.1K
$268.41
- YES
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
915 shares @ 63.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$507.61
$-73.67
- YES
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
454 shares @ 71.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$392.28
$67.07
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
2695 shares @ 9.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$202.10
$-53.36
- YES
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
158 shares @ 71.5¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$116.62
$3.96
- YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?
196 shares @ 52.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$103.11
$0.98
- NO
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
80 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$77.48
$8.68
- NO
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
110 shares @ 70.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$74.37
$-2.75
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
172 shares @ 92.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$71.34
$-86.81
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?
200 shares @ 34.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$65.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana win on 2026-06-27?$34.85Jun 24, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?$1.81Jun 23, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?$105.50Jun 23, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEgypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score$10.47Jun 23, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B$37.50Jun 23, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$127.30Jun 23, 19:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$400.00Jun 23, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEcuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?$50.08Jun 23, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$7.31Jun 23, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$7.02Jun 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$94.30Jun 23, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$11.77Jun 23, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$7.26Jun 23, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$5.57Jun 23, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$0.01Jun 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$0.32Jun 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$0.05Jun 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$9.64Jun 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$94.10Jun 23, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$7.71Jun 23, 07:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
41 closed markets, 39% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $28.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 07:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.