Famous-Fallacy
0x3e4a072bf427421a34a9b085c0a8796c7da7dced
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$59.98
Total PnL
$-57.36
Realised
$4.43
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
80 shares @ 37.2¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.62
$-0.96
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
23 shares @ 50.3¢·now 57.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$13.13
$1.64
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
69 shares @ 11.2¢·now 13.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$9.33
$1.59
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
73 shares @ 15.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.90
$-4.20
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
148 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
105 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-33.06
- YES
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
20 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
14 shares @ 60.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.37
- YES
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
7 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?$3.00May 18, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$6.25May 17, 04:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$11.24May 17, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$6.21May 16, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$1.04May 16, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$4.11May 16, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$1.05May 16, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$5.70May 15, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$4.41May 15, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$5.56May 15, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$0.63May 14, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$3.05May 14, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$4.06May 14, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.04May 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.03May 14, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$3.08May 14, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$12.89May 13, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$6.91May 13, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$3.08May 12, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.04May 12, 21:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 16:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 15:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".