Skinny-Innocent
0x3ed1eda43164a59c3852518599c0542e2a75fe3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$6.30
Total PnL
$-4.85
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.09
$0.07
- NO
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will FDO by Pooh Shiesty be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 24?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on October 31?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.25 in November?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 16, 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.53
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.98Jun 30, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?$1.05Jun 30, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May?$1.07Jun 30, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?$1.02Jun 23, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May?$6.49Jun 23, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May?$7.56Jun 23, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 23, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$8.56Jun 23, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$9.70Jun 23, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$8.98Jun 23, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jun 23, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.64Jun 23, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$11.70Jun 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?$1.00Jun 23, 05:08 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?$1.02May 1, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMMarozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5$1.05May 1, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15?$1.06May 1, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?$1.06May 1, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15?$1.08May 1, 09:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $6.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 03:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 04:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.