Insignificant-Accord
0x3efc4b5ba9faaa3e3f4a8edd52ee35ecce47c3a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$13.42
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$82.93
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.24
$0.20
- NO
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
3 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.69
$0.00
- NO
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.42
$-0.58
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
482 shares @ 48.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-235.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
321 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-157.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
316 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-161.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.04Jul 10, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$2.03Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?$1.37Jul 1, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?$3.74Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.67Jun 30, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iraq win on 2026-06-16?$4.80Jun 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq win on 2026-06-16?$4.57Jun 16, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?$2.38Jun 12, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$1.30Jun 11, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$2.00Jun 11, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Warren have a #1 hit in the US in May?$1.25Jun 1, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$1.10Jun 1, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?$2.87Jun 1, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$1.00May 31, 01:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?$1.05May 30, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?$2.71May 30, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.02May 30, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$1.20May 28, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$1.01May 24, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Warren have a #1 hit in the US in May?$1.24May 23, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $41.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 01:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.