Average-Jellybeans
0x3f2d1a7e0758d8c57fe4d9678c023b4120402adc
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$13.3K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$3.3K
Win rate
91%
96 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
23952 shares @ 4.1¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$898.20
$-86.54
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
75186 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$789.45
$-318.19
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6343 shares @ 13.1¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$738.91
$-89.27
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
2850 shares @ 14.3¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$356.21
$-50.72
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1710 shares @ 19.9¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$330.92
$-9.92
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50102 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$325.67
$-103.61
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
10168 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$299.96
$-113.51
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
612 shares @ 64.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$297.04
$-94.99
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
4176 shares @ 7.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$292.30
$-32.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
44897 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$291.83
$-92.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$7.79Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.13Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.10Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.08Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.03Jul 28, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.06Jul 28, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.04Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.04Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.06Jul 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?$16.47Jul 28, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.06Jul 28, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.18Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.13Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$19.20Jul 28, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.01Jul 28, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.14Jul 28, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.04Jul 28, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.10Jul 28, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.00Jul 28, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.12Jul 28, 20:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 96 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
96 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 96 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.