Fair-Apology-Bucket
0x3f48117184db84f7eebb0ac37e730651dfc0e69b
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?
2365 shares @ 25.1¢·now 69.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.6K
$1.1K
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
2364 shares @ 46.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$863.00
$-226.67
- NO
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?
450 shares @ 24.4¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$225.04
$115.06
- NO
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?
1933 shares @ 22.2¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$164.28
$-265.01
- NO
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
336 shares @ 29.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$46.99
$-53.35
- NO
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
146 shares @ 30.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$32.83
$-10.94
- NO
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
171 shares @ 28.8¢·now 16.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$27.39
$-21.90
- NO
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?
18 shares @ 28.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$5.81
$0.65
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
117000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-510.12
- NO
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
2754 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-970.89
Recent activity
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$166.90Jun 13, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$613.18Jun 13, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$623.89Jun 13, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$169.67Jun 13, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$920.00Jun 13, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$235.15Jun 10, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?$21.35Jun 7, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$31.20Jun 6, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$238.14Jun 2, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$67.58Jun 2, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$63.90Jun 2, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$61.56Jun 2, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$0.20Jun 1, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$485.29Jun 1, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$214.73Jun 1, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$106.83Jun 1, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$97.28Jun 1, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$315.75Jun 1, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$24.88May 31, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$24.51May 31, 11:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $94.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 11:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 13:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.