Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?
Probability
80¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-10.5pp
24h Vol
$4.5K
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1320.7h
- 23:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1321h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 80¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 79¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 79¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 75¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 73¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 72¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 70¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 70¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 90¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 91¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 90¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 90¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 90¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 90¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 91¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 100¢0.0pp
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Geopolitics · Vol $19.2M
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $9.5M
- 11¢+3.5pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $3.6M
- 100¢0.0pp
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.8M
- 100¢0.0pp
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.3M
- 36¢+5.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to thisAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).