Real-Capitulation
0x402c9fe6d7cbbe275184feb0dbf8ea517ae30f6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$682.64
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$-2.6K
Win rate
48%
183 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
185 shares @ 90.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$173.42
$4.98
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
184 shares @ 90.2¢·now 90.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$166.22
$0.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
211 shares @ 35.9¢·now 44.3¢·exp May 19, 2026$93.44
$17.58
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
159 shares @ 38.7¢·now 37.9¢·exp May 19, 2026$60.31
$-1.32
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
163 shares @ 16.4¢·now 16.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$26.87
$0.08
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
337 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$25.30
$-5.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
270 shares @ 5.1¢·now 8.8¢·exp May 22, 2026$23.87
$10.04
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
186 shares @ 12.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.42
$-1.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
261 shares @ 5.4¢·now 8.2¢·exp May 19, 2026$21.30
$7.27
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
383 shares @ 3.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$17.24
$3.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$0.34May 18, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$36.50May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$0.49May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$16.74May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$23.00May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.26May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.68May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$22.75May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$12.85May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$2.25May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.63May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$0.37May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$38.00May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$8.26May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$23.00May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.57May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$21.26May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$44.10May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$24.62May 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$9.87May 18, 07:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $17.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 07:51 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 183 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".