Wary-Octagon
0x403f76778c5306b5d573f2a7ab425df0d1451679
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$390.95
Total PnL
$-270.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
139 shares @ 72.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$132.64
$32.64
- NO
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?
119 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$99.40
$-0.60
- NO
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
152 shares @ 65.9¢·now 65.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$98.63
$-1.37
- NO
Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?
3946 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$43.40
$-116.59
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
3814 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.63
$-2.37
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
619 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
176 shares @ 56.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?$101.364h ago
- TRADEBUYWill China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?$100.644h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?$130.005h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?$30.005h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?$10.005h ago
- YIELD$0.0010h ago
- YIELD$0.001d ago
- YIELD$0.002d ago
- YIELD$0.003d ago
- YIELD$0.004d ago
- YIELD$0.005d ago
- YIELD$0.006d ago
- YIELD$0.007d ago
- YIELD$0.008d ago
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.0035d ago
- REDEEMWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?$126.5840d ago
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$149.4540d ago
- REDEEMWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?$158.3240d ago
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$30.0043d ago
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$16.6643d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $69.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 66d ago
- Last active
- 4h ago
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".
