Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?
Probability
81¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+18.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.8K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChinese governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 19pp over 24h
Now 81¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 76¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChinese governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1410.1h
Price movement
+18.5pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
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