Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $18.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.4h
- 14:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 78¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal GovernmentOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).