Unnatural-Evidence
0x4061ae5819cc3a7a49d8b393279e7591fa1ad586
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$47.96
Total PnL
$3.60
Realised
$0.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
19 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$17.37
$-0.10
- NO
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
15 shares @ 84.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$14.77
$2.33
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 90.4¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.45
$0.45
- YES
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.29
$0.29
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.09
$0.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11.44Jul 5, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.89Jul 5, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.05Jul 4, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.10Jul 4, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$5.17Jul 4, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?$17.60Jul 4, 05:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.18Jul 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?$8.40Jul 3, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?$17.64Jul 3, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?$7.56Jul 3, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?$9.26Jul 3, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition$17.60Jul 3, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYCalifornia Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition$34.80Jul 2, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$15.45Jul 2, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.24Jul 2, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$14.35Jul 2, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$12.43Jul 2, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.89Jul 2, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.02Jul 1, 14:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$10.59Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 13:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 04:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.