Rough-Gown
0x40b9cd42ada10fdcbb25eb713eb43b4a0fe6d521
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
53
Open notional
$85.91
Total PnL
$-29.92
Realised
$-6.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
135 shares @ 17.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$68.32
$45.32
- YES
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$3.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.21
$1.21
- YES
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.00
$1.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
19 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-1.22
- YES
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
5 shares @ 18.5¢·now 18.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
31 shares @ 3.2¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.89
$-0.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$23.00Jun 8, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$0.88May 17, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?$1.09May 16, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?$1.08May 16, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$1.08May 16, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$2.17May 16, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.09May 16, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.09May 16, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$3.03May 16, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?$1.00Apr 6, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.00Apr 6, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$0.55Mar 31, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$0.32Mar 31, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$0.15Mar 31, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?$1.00Mar 31, 20:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 21:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 12:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.