Honest-Cufflink
0x40c2348351024cce5ba6fccd6015b77bbb77b2fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
150
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-124.95
Realised
$238.46
Win rate
75%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 150- YES
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United?
100 shares @ 85.9¢·now 78.3¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$78.35
$-7.55
- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
423 shares @ 13.5¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.94
$17.04
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
170 shares @ 52.1¢·now 40.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$69.10
$-19.52
- NO
Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
80 shares @ 85.2¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$64.00
$-4.20
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
115 shares @ 54.9¢·now 37.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$42.65
$-20.66
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
60 shares @ 65.3¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$42.30
$3.09
- NO
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
40 shares @ 86.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$33.40
$-1.20
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
76 shares @ 29.2¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$32.41
$10.13
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
53 shares @ 59.6¢·now 60.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$31.92
$0.62
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
30 shares @ 42.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$30.26
$17.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$44.39Aug 17, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$2.60Aug 17, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?$28.68Aug 17, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodri join Barcelona?$43.32Aug 17, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?$15.18Aug 17, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$17.00Aug 17, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$34.00Aug 17, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$17.20Aug 17, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$17.20Aug 17, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$17.40Aug 17, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$7.20Aug 17, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?$20.70Aug 17, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$2.40Aug 17, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?$9.00Aug 17, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan?$9.09Aug 17, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$5.96Aug 17, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan?$6.22Aug 17, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan?$6.40Aug 17, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?$3.00Aug 17, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?$4.50Aug 17, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
81/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
44 closed markets, 75% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 09:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 20:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.