Exotic-Prize
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$161.2K
Total PnL
$2.5K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
89%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
45000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$44.8K
$22.3K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
25000 shares @ 86.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.9K
$1.3K
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
10000 shares @ 85.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.1K
$490.00
- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
8745 shares @ 87.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.9K
$282.94
- NO
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?
8134 shares @ 86.4¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$7.4K
$376.36
- YES
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
11146 shares @ 59.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.7K
$107.93
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
6000 shares @ 91.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$5.8K
$346.01
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?
10601 shares @ 43.7¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$4.9K
$300.82
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
5565 shares @ 83.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.8K
$153.91
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
6127 shares @ 56.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.1K
$592.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$764.00Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$765.00Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$12.34Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$2.0KJul 28, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$762.33Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$29.00Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dan Kleban be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$28.00Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$33.87Jul 28, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$4.68Jul 28, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$19.00Jul 28, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$155.67Jul 28, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$17.34Jul 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$31.00Jul 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$0.40Jul 28, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$120.00Jul 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$457.85Jul 28, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?$63.00Jul 28, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$17.86Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$11.2K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 26, 16:20 UTC → Jul 14, 15:28 UTC
- BUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$5.2K@86¢Jun 26, 16:13 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
$6.1K · 54% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $254.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.