Stark-Brother
0x40eb64e03e1ba81e1e690e768e3e48ce91f53f31
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
184
Open notional
$611.53
Total PnL
$-8.3K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 184- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1638 shares @ 18.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$401.24
$101.24
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2027 shares @ 7.4¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.04
$-71.96
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
158 shares @ 31.7¢·now 46.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.43
$23.43
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
129 shares @ 15.6¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$34.64
$14.64
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
632 shares @ 9.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.79
$-38.21
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
109 shares @ 4.6¢·now 2.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.39
$-2.61
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?
40340 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-54.98
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
16557 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?
6646 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.44
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $58.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.