0x4135…e462
0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce462
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
0
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$0.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
No open positions.
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$14.19Jun 29, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$40.91Jun 29, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?$36.26Jun 29, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$25.12Jun 29, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$25.12Jun 29, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$9.19Jun 29, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?$81.48Jun 29, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?$10.27Jun 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$10.29Jun 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$20.10Jun 29, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$20.10Jun 29, 16:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada win on 2026-06-28?$150.94Jun 28, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 28, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$0.00Jun 28, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$0.00Jun 28, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 28, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-28?$81.53Jun 28, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$0.00Jun 14, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$40.40Jun 13, 18:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $129.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 18:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.