Evergreen-Thunderbolt
0x414585f5ffaf974fdb3c6143b09fdc44b5fffc24
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
49
Open notional
$791.84
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2076 shares @ 32.9¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$280.19
$-402.60
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
217 shares @ 46.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$88.04
$-11.96
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$71.51
$-28.49
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
267 shares @ 37.5¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$51.61
$-48.39
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
113 shares @ 55.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$48.42
$-13.58
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$38.45
$28.45
- NO
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?
37 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$36.59
$6.59
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
238 shares @ 4.2¢·now 13.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$31.55
$21.55
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
27 shares @ 96.3¢·now 91.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.66
$-1.34
- YES
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
333 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$23.33
$-6.67
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.