Thrifty-Diary
0x41f20a177751b3d0746617b31eeb02e84b80d8ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$397.02
Total PnL
$-5.34
Realised
$-15.92
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
364 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$332.85
$9.09
- NO
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day?
27 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$26.89
$0.51
- NO
Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
5 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$5.00
$0.21
- NO
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
5 shares @ 79.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.78
$1.00
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 92.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.57
$-0.06
- NO
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?
4 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.30
$0.30
- NO
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
3 shares @ 97.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.34
$0.10
- NO
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.18
$0.03
- NO
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.13
$0.04
- NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.36
$0.13
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.