Knotty-Exception
0x435147edf1d6192eac1546c1be8f9776ae429060
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$259.72
Total PnL
$-53.27
Realised
$18.58
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.38
$17.38
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
100 shares @ 25.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$41.00
$16.00
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 35.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.50
$-12.50
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
30 shares @ 53.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$17.55
$1.65
- YES
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
100 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
145 shares @ 22.7¢·now 8.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$12.34
$-20.59
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$11.25
$-18.25
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
50 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.25
$-0.25
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
50 shares @ 27.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.00
$-5.50
- YES
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 15.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.90
$2.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: August$5.00Aug 10, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.00Aug 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$0.50Aug 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?$5.00Aug 10, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$8.50Aug 9, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$6.50Aug 9, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$25.75Aug 9, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$8.00Aug 7, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?$2.10Aug 7, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?$2.52Aug 7, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?$2.52Aug 7, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?$5.46Aug 7, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$0.75Aug 5, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$14.60Aug 5, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$21.29Aug 5, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?$19.20Aug 5, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?$10.00Aug 5, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill August 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$0.45Aug 5, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?$2.00Aug 5, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$5.20Aug 5, 05:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 21:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 17:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.